Nov 12, 2009

1.    The theme this week has to be:  Long and Strong.  Those with counter trend bets against the underlying bull trend have seen price go “impossibly” higher.  And higher.  

2.    Question:  What rhymes with higher?  Answer: Fire.

3.    Those with counter trend large price plops have felt the burn.  Don’t bet large money on price corrections against the major trend.  If you are short against a major asset class, AND have no money invested in the major bull trend, AND have no risk capital even ALLLOCATED to any buy points on the long side, you won’t just light on fire….  You will EXPLODE.

4.    Having said that, I haven’t missed a single entry point on the short side of my Dow 9000-11,500 foray.  I was filled again yesterday as the Dow hit 10,300.  I have tweaked the profit taking, yes.  When I was tipped off that the fundsters were wildly short at Dow 9600 with loans, I booked profit aggressively, especially when I learned that the very same fundsters were shorting the Dow in monster size into Dow 6500 and were baked alive there.  Likewise, I shorted more aggressively into 10,000 when I read over and over again how the mkt couldn’t fall down, and I simply always bet slightly more at major round numbers.  10,000 is one of those numbers.  You may recall the words of my bank trader friend at 9600 that I quoted there, “This feels more like a market BOTTOM than a TOP.”  The banksters broke the major uptrend line from Dow 6500 and the fundsters went crazy on the shortside, sure that “this is it”.  What have I told you in the past?  I BUY trendline breaks.  I don’t sell them.  Bottom line: The banksters just mopped the Dow floor with the fundsters.  Where do we go from here?

5.    Nov-Dec is a strong time for the stock market.  January often marks either an acceleration of the year-end trend, or a turning point.  I expect to go back into the red on my new Dow shorts now, as we finish the year.  If we turn down, well, I’d rather make a micro profit than BET we ARE going to turn down.

6.    I posted part 1 of the “Thar She Blows” oil video on the site this morning.  I’m getting a parade of “gold should sell off soon to $1000, right?” emails.  Unfortunately for those BETTING on such an event, those emails are not coming from any of my heavyweight subscribers.  I’ve used the analogy that the gold community right now is like the customer in a restaurant, waiting for the waiter to bring him a nice correction in his targeted gold stocks.  “Oh, I’ll take a couple of these, 1 of those, and those look good over there.  What do you suggest, Mrs Waitress?” I doubt there will be any such correction here; it’s more likely to be either very shallow, or a WIPEOUT that tanks way below 1000.  WHEN there finally is a REAL CORRECTION in gold, it will be TERRIFYING.  The gold stock waitress will rip off her mask and reveal herself as evil bankster who will stick a gun in your mouth while she screams “gimme your gold now!”.  THAT is how we ALL will FEEL when the real correction comes.  Many will hand it over crying, “just stop the pain, take it, please, stop the pain!”  Right now, I think THAT pain is more likely to be greet: US dollar holders.   

7.    OIL to me looks like it’s about to do to the “I’m short energy waiting for a correction” crew… EXACTLY what gold did to the “I’m short gold on the breakout from the head and shoulders waiting for 980 to get my free gold!” crew.

8.   If YOU are short oil now in size, and you are long NONE, I would suggest you are playing with DYNAMITE.  Both oil and natural gas monthly charts show the long term indicators of TRIX and MACD on massive buy signals. 

9.   Remember the Dow from 6500.  The monthly chart gave the SAME massive buy signals on trix and macd.  Few listened.  Focus on buying oil.  Not boiling in it.

10.                   The GDXJ is up and running.  It felt like a prison break around here.  An army of you reported you bought an average of 200 shares just to “be in the game”.  There may have been a trade at $400, while it was a $25 stock.  I think we’ve all waited so long for something like this to EXIST, imperfect as it is, that it was literally like being let out of prison.  You have to “live a little”, regardless of what price is.

11.                   REMEMBER that BUY you did.  Yes, $25 is a price higher than we’d all like to see it launched at, yes there are clauses where the banksters can borrow some and short it, yes it’s odd they have some silver companies in there without mentioning silver in the name of the thing, yes there’s this problem and that one, but in the end: GDXJ IS ALL WE HAVE.  There are no other choices.  Using the pyramid will chop or even eliminate a lot of the risks that exist with GDXJ.  In time, as long as the system doesn’t blow up, I think a lot of you are going to report booking a lot of wins, and if you use those wins to pull some risk money OFF the table, it’s possible you could get ALL your risk money off the table with your trading wins, so your core positions are the MARKET’s money.  NOT YOURS.

12.                   I have told you repeatedly:  Do NOT lose track of the BOND market.  Goldland is focused on everything BUT the bond market.  I have been staring at the uptrend line on the bond market for the past week.  A fellow known as “Ciga Eric” who Jim Sinclair gives some exposure to is looking at a larger picture of what I’ve been following.  I’m following the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders top.  I’m going to post a bond video today and I’ll include what Eric is looking at.

13.                   This is an OMINOUS development.  An implosion of the US bond market would be followed by near IMMEDIATE gold revaluation and the US Treasury would boot the US Dollar over a cliff like Hercules kicking a football. 

14.                   A RISE in interest rates now would be CATASTROPHIC.  That head and shoulders pattern, which I pointed out as something to keep an eye on, but something that needed more time to reveal itself one way or another…the bottom line is it is now a massive RED FLAG. 

15.                   What we all could be witnessing, right here, right now, is the FINAL TOP in the near 30 year bull market in US Treasury Bonds.  And, by coincidence of course, the banksters’ 30 year bonds that have been yielding them 15% a year for 30 years courtesy of the taxpayer, are MATURING.  Bottom line in the banksters’ minds:

16.                   Time to roll them over and rebuy.  Of course, no self-respecting bankster is going to accept a bond paying 4% after he was getting 15 big ones. 

17.                   I don’t know if the US gov’t people who are pushing to make the banks smaller are part of a bankster PR campaign, or whether they are really trying to do it.

18.                   I do know THIS.  The banksters are the PRIMARY DEALERS for the US govt bond market.  THEY get the customers for the govt.  If I was Mrs. Bankster, and the Gman told ME, “we’re chopping you into pieces”, I would say, “Go ahead, start chopping.  Good luck selling your garbage Gman bonds after the dollar goes into freefall and we tell all our clients to short bonds.  Your next auction is going to feature NO BUYERS.”

19.                   If the United States BOND MARKET goes INTO PLAY in the gold arena, the volatility in gold is about to go ASTRO.  I have warned those playing real estate genius to take one of two actions:  Buy a long term mortgage(one that ends with your house fully paid off, not a rollover into the gas chamber of higher rates event) at the current LOW rates OR do NOT buy.  If rates rise, the real estate market is going into HOLOCAUST MODE. 

20.                   The head and shoulders top on the bond market is not the work of art that exists in gold.  But it’s THERE.  If I had to visualize the picture at the US Treasury and the Central Bank right now, the picture I have is of the printing press on hyperdrive, pouring money into a huge underground cavern, ready to be spewed out IF the bond market collapses.

21.                   There is no “Recovery”.  The banksters, once again, have sent the public investor kiddies down to the beach to play in their “safety” sand castles.  What a bunch of MORONS.

22.                   After THIRTY YEARS of RISING BOND PRICES, the public shows up at the price chasing trough and BUYS.   Let me wave the starting flag for the race:  Go Piglets Go.  Stick your head in the bond trough, come and get it!  “Why do you insist on using market tactics that have worked for 30 years but have failed for FIVE THOUSAND?  Are you sure they will serve you well NOW?  Why base your actions on 30 years price direction luck, rather than 5 thousand years of history?” - Chinese Monk talking to bond market price chaser.

23.                   “Get out of my way, old man, I NEED these bonds, gimme ‘em!”    

24.                   “You NEED safety with growth” – Joe Golf Ball Advisor. 2009.

25.                   I need, me want, I need, me want, I, me, I, me, I, me..

26.                   Those who FAILED to RESPOND to PRICE with the tactics the BANKSTERS use to respond to it,  and instead chased it in a need and want fuelled frenzy of greed, well, they are now an ant in a sandcastle of income investments, and are about to experience the greatest tidal wave yet in the otc derivatives “Big Show” CARPET BOMBING.  The public MORON is about to learn his “Sandcastle Of Safety” is a sandcastle of GARBAGE and the banksters are going to stomp it to WORTHLESSNESS.  Following that, they’ll take the garbage and dump him the BREAD LINE.

27.                   The Total Destruction Of The American Bond Bull Market is coming.  This is going suck the ENTIRE WORLD into an economic ABYSS.  Like I said, do NOT cheer higher gold.  Gold is the PUNISHER.  And next on the punisher’s list is:

28.                   GLOBAL BOND MARKETS. 

29.                   The Gman’s JUGULAR VEIN IS ABOUT TO BE SLASHED.  As the blood spews out like a firehose, he’ll turn on the taxpayer with a viciousness that opens the door to even more horrors. 

30.                   I suggest you consider what I’ve written today, when reading Mr. Gold Writer (AKA Mr. Squiggly Wiggly) who says his super chart says you should short gold.  Throw the idiot a crust of BREAD.  He’s going to need it.  There’s only one more thing to say, and that is:

                           Are YOU Prepared?

Check on the site in 30 mins for my coverage of what Eric sees, what I see, and the what the public in their blindfold with their head in the bond mkt sandcastle sees.

Cheers!

Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates